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+
+# Bed Availability Prediction
+
+> 7-day forward forecast of bed occupancy and vacancies per floor/ward, with bottleneck flagging
+
+## Purpose
+
+Forecasts bed occupancy for each floor/ward over the next 7 days by combining current occupancy with historical (90-day) day-of-week admission and discharge patterns. Applies tunable multipliers to account for known surges or slowdowns, and flags any ward/day projected to cross an occupancy threshold as a `BOTTLENECK RISK`.
+
+## Parameters
+
+| Variable | Default | Meaning | When to change it |
+|----------|---------|---------|--------------------|
+| `admission_multiplier` | `1.0` | Scales expected admissions vs. the 90-day average. `1.0` = normal, `1.2` = expect 20% more admissions, `0.8` = expect 20% fewer | Festival/flu season surge → `1.2`–`1.5`. Holiday period with fewer elective admits → `0.7`–`0.9` |
+| `turnover_multiplier` | `1.0` | Scales expected discharges. `1.0` = normal discharge pace, `1.2` = faster discharges, `0.8` = slower | Discharge drive/faster turnover initiative → `1.1`–`1.3`. Long weekend when doctors discharge fewer patients → `0.7`–`0.9` |
+| `bottleneck_threshold` | `0.90` | Occupancy % (as a fraction) at which a ward gets flagged as `"BOTTLENECK RISK"` | ICU/critical wards may warrant `0.80` (flag earlier). General wards may tolerate `0.95` |
+
+> **Note:** `bottleneck_threshold` is a **fraction**, so enter `0.90`, not `90`. If all three variables are set to `1`, the threshold is effectively `100%`, meaning nothing will flag until a ward is completely full — set it to `0.9` (or your desired fraction) instead.
+
+---
+
+## Query
+
+```sql
+WITH capacity AS (
+    SELECT
+        COALESCE(gp.name, p.name) AS floor,
+        p.name AS ward,
+        COUNT(*) AS total_beds
+    FROM emr_facilitylocation fl
+    LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation p ON fl.parent_id = p.id
+    LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation gp ON p.parent_id = gp.id
+    WHERE fl.deleted = FALSE AND fl.status = 'active'
+      AND fl.form = 'bd' AND fl.root_location_id != 300
+    GROUP BY 1, 2
+),
+current_occ AS (
+    SELECT
+        COALESCE(gp.name, p.name) AS floor,
+        p.name AS ward,
+        COUNT(DISTINCT fl.id) AS occupied_beds
+    FROM emr_facilitylocationencounter fle
+    INNER JOIN emr_facilitylocation fl ON fle.location_id = fl.id
+    LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation p ON fl.parent_id = p.id
+    LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation gp ON p.parent_id = gp.id
+    WHERE fl.deleted = FALSE AND fl.status = 'active'
+      AND fl.form = 'bd' AND fle.deleted = FALSE
+      AND fl.root_location_id != 300
+      AND fle.start_datetime <= NOW()
+      AND (fle.end_datetime IS NULL OR fle.end_datetime > NOW())
+    GROUP BY 1, 2
+),
+
+dow_occurrences AS (
+    SELECT
+        EXTRACT(DOW FROM d) AS dow,
+        COUNT(*) AS occurrences
+    FROM generate_series(
+        date_trunc('day', NOW()) - INTERVAL '90 days',
+        date_trunc('day', NOW()) - INTERVAL '1 day',
+        INTERVAL '1 day'
+    ) AS d
+    GROUP BY 1
+),
+patterns AS (
+   
+    SELECT
+        combined.floor,
+        combined.ward,
+        combined.dow,
+        SUM(combined.admit_count)     / docc.occurrences::float AS avg_admits,
+        SUM(combined.discharge_count) / docc.occurrences::float AS avg_discharges
+    FROM (
+        
+        SELECT
+            COALESCE(gp_a.name, p_a.name) AS floor,
+            p_a.name AS ward,
+            EXTRACT(DOW FROM fle_a.start_datetime) AS dow,
+            COUNT(*) AS admit_count,
+            0 AS discharge_count
+        FROM emr_facilitylocationencounter fle_a
+        INNER JOIN emr_facilitylocation fl_a ON fle_a.location_id = fl_a.id
+        LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation p_a ON fl_a.parent_id = p_a.id
+        LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation gp_a ON p_a.parent_id = gp_a.id
+        WHERE fl_a.deleted = FALSE AND fl_a.status = 'active'
+          AND fl_a.form = 'bd' AND fle_a.deleted = FALSE
+          AND fl_a.root_location_id != 300
+          AND fle_a.start_datetime >= date_trunc('day', NOW()) - INTERVAL '90 days'
+          AND fle_a.start_datetime <  date_trunc('day', NOW())
+        GROUP BY 1, 2, 3
+
+        UNION ALL
+
+        
+        SELECT
+            COALESCE(gp_d.name, p_d.name) AS floor,
+            p_d.name AS ward,
+            EXTRACT(DOW FROM fle_d.end_datetime) AS dow,
+            0 AS admit_count,
+            COUNT(*) AS discharge_count
+        FROM emr_facilitylocationencounter fle_d
+        INNER JOIN emr_facilitylocation fl_d ON fle_d.location_id = fl_d.id
+        LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation p_d ON fl_d.parent_id = p_d.id
+        LEFT JOIN emr_facilitylocation gp_d ON p_d.parent_id = gp_d.id
+        WHERE fl_d.deleted = FALSE AND fl_d.status = 'active'
+          AND fl_d.form = 'bd' AND fle_d.deleted = FALSE
+          AND fl_d.root_location_id != 300
+          AND fle_d.end_datetime IS NOT NULL
+          AND fle_d.end_datetime >= date_trunc('day', NOW()) - INTERVAL '90 days'
+          AND fle_d.end_datetime <  date_trunc('day', NOW())
+        GROUP BY 1, 2, 3
+    ) combined
+    JOIN dow_occurrences docc ON docc.dow = combined.dow
+    GROUP BY 1, 2, 3, docc.occurrences
+),
+days AS (
+    SELECT generate_series(
+        date_trunc('day', NOW()) + INTERVAL '1 day',
+        date_trunc('day', NOW()) + INTERVAL '7 days',
+        INTERVAL '1 day'
+    ) AS forecast_day
+),
+forecast AS (
+    SELECT
+        c.floor,
+        c.ward,
+        c.total_beds,
+        d.forecast_day,
+        COALESCE(co.occupied_beds, 0) AS occupied_beds,
+        SUM(
+            COALESCE(pt.avg_admits, 0)     * {{admission_multiplier}}
+          - COALESCE(pt.avg_discharges, 0) * {{turnover_multiplier}}
+        ) OVER (PARTITION BY c.floor, c.ward ORDER BY d.forecast_day) AS cum_net_flow
+    FROM capacity c
+    CROSS JOIN days d
+    LEFT JOIN current_occ co ON co.floor = c.floor AND co.ward = c.ward
+    LEFT JOIN patterns pt
+        ON pt.floor = c.floor AND pt.ward = c.ward
+       AND pt.dow = EXTRACT(DOW FROM d.forecast_day)
+)
+SELECT
+    floor,
+    ward,
+    forecast_day,
+    total_beds,
+    ROUND(LEAST(GREATEST(occupied_beds + cum_net_flow, 0), total_beds)::numeric) AS predicted_occupied,
+    total_beds - ROUND(LEAST(GREATEST(occupied_beds + cum_net_flow, 0), total_beds)::numeric) AS predicted_vacancies,
+    ROUND((100.0 * LEAST(GREATEST(occupied_beds + cum_net_flow, 0), total_beds) / total_beds)::numeric, 1) AS predicted_occupancy_pct,
+    CASE WHEN (occupied_beds + cum_net_flow) / total_beds::float >= {{bottleneck_threshold}}
+         THEN 'BOTTLENECK RISK' ELSE 'OK' END AS status
+FROM forecast
+ORDER BY floor, ward, forecast_day
+```
+
+## Notes
+
+- **Tunable variables:** See the Parameters table above.
+  - `admission_multiplier` and `turnover_multiplier` scale the historical daily averages to reflect expected surges/slowdowns.
+  - `bottleneck_threshold` is compared against the *fraction* `(occupied_beds + cum_net_flow) / total_beds`, so it must be entered as a decimal fraction (e.g. `0.90` for 90%), not a whole number.
+- Results are ordered by floor, then ward, then forecast day — giving a 7-day trend per ward.
+
+*Last updated: 2026-07-24*